What is the name of the tendency to believe that one would have foreseen an outcome after learning about it?

The tendency to believe that one would have foreseen an outcome after learning about it is known as hindsight bias. This cognitive bias occurs when people regard a past event as being more predictable than it actually was before the event occurred. Once the outcome is known, individuals may feel as though they should have anticipated it, leading them to perceive their prior knowledge as being more accurate than it really was.

Hindsight bias can significantly impact how people evaluate decisions or events, both in their own lives and in research contexts. It’s particularly relevant in areas like psychology, sports analysis, and historical events, where analyzing outcomes can lead to misguided beliefs about what should have been expected. This illustrates the importance of recognizing the limits of our foresight and understanding that outcomes are often less predictable than they may appear after the fact.